How Many People Would a Bird Flu Pandemic Kill?
5130
Disease & Illness > Bird Flu
Mar 1, 2007
Richard Stooker
How Many People Would a Bird Flu Pandemic Kill?
You see a lot of wild and crazy estimates for this. Yet, the truth is, there's no simple answer. It depends on a lot of things -- and the most important factors are still unknown.
First of all, I don't put any stock in the simplistic estimates that are based on 1918. We're living in a much different world. H5N1 is a different virus.
Some estimates are based on more sophisticated mathematical models. The only problem is, right now critical variables are still unknown.
First variable is known as the lethality rate. That is, what percentage of infected people will bird flu kill?
Right now, based on known victims, it's consistently killing just over half. However, the numbers of patients are still quite small, so that may not be statistically accurate. Plus, many of those patients are receiving good medical care. It may kill a higher percentage of those who don't make it to hospitals.
It's also true that we probably don't know the true number of infected people. Just a few days ago Indonesia announced that it just learned that a little girl who died there last year had bird flu, even though several of her family members were known to have died of it.
If a relatively advanced country isn't getting around to testing an obviously suspect child patient until 8 months after her death -- what's happening in sub-Saharan Africa?
How many more victims are going undetected? That's unknown. On the bright side, it's possible that some or many victims are recovering without being tested so the actual lethality rate might be lower than we think.
If and when H5N1 mutates into a highly contagious form, its lethality rate could go lower. Until it actually happens, we just don't know.
But it is frightening to compare H5N1 to the 1918 flu, because the 1918 flu had a lethality rate of 2.5% -- so if contagious bird flu retains anything like its current apparent lethality rate, it could be much deadlier than 1918 flu. Which would make comparisons between them way over-optimistic.
To measure the spread of a disease, scientists use the contagion rate.
This is -- how many other people on average does one infected person spread the flu to?
Partly this is based on the virus itself, so we just can't know this until it does mutate. However, right now H5N1 is a tough virus -- it can survive for hours outside a human body and in water. This means that you could be infected by an A/H5N1 virus left on a doorknob by someone who opened that door several hours before you.
Overall contagion rate must be affected by population density. Bird flu will infect more people in a crowded Calcutta slum than in rural Wyoming.
And here's a great difference between now and 1918. The world's population is over 6 times higher. But since some areas of the world are so densely crowded, it's possible that chicken flu would spread through them very quickly and kill even more than 6 times as many people as in 1918.
Plus, in 1918 various areas of the world defended themselves by closing themselves off from the outside world. Some places can still do this, but most of the world is much less self-sufficient. Unless you're on an island that supplies its own food and water, you can't isolate yourself from other people.
And even if you can -- there's still the risk of contagion from animals. So your island better not be under a duck migration route. Because duck manure does contain the active virus.
Plus, the world's population may be more susceptible to infection than in 1918. Everybody infected with HIV is at risk, for example.
Bird flu would likely travel around the world more quickly today because we have much more international travel. We go places by jet instead of steam ships.
There's another advance in transportation -- not usually mentioned -- which will affect transmission of bird flu: the automobile. Only a very few people in 1918 had cars, and there was no system of highways.
Now cars and highways connect the entire developed world. And are common and widespread in the developing world.
Of course, riding alone in a car during a lethal flu pandemic is safer than riding in a bus, train or other mass transit vehicle with many other people. Yet if you're the one infected, a car can help you spread the virus farther and faster than you could have in 1918.
There's another risk of death the world's population faces from A/H5N1, which is not being addressed.
That's the risk of the consequences of the pandemic.
If the pandemic causes many deaths the world's economy will be disrupted.
There'll be shortages of food, water, medicine, energy and other necessities. This could last for a year or more, if agriculture is greatly affected.
In many places there's likely to be problems with both law and order and civil unrest.
In a pandemic of any significant seriousness there will death caused by a large number of various groups seeking to take advantage of the situation: ordinary criminals, terrorists, organized crime, renegade groups of soldiers and police, ethnic/racial hate groups, political/religious extremists of all stripes -- and just any old mob looking to loot and kill just because they can get away with it, or to scapegoat some other group for the pandemic.
In some cases there's bound to be organized armed battles and wars between countries and between competing groups within countries.
My personal belief is that there'll be great civil unrest but ultimately society as we know it will prevail -- though the world's map may change in many places.
With central governments weakened by deaths and lack of resources, many disaffected ethnic groups will seize the opportunity to become independent.
On the other hand, many ethnic majorities will seize the opportunity to blame ethnic minorities for the pandemic -- and kill them in riots.
The severity of events will likely fall somewhere between the temporary default of law and order in New Orleans during the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the total anarchy of Stephen King's novel THE STAND.
How can anybody predict the number of dead from these events?
First of all, I don't put any stock in the simplistic estimates that are based on 1918. We're living in a much different world. H5N1 is a different virus.
Some estimates are based on more sophisticated mathematical models. The only problem is, right now critical variables are still unknown.
First variable is known as the lethality rate. That is, what percentage of infected people will bird flu kill?
Right now, based on known victims, it's consistently killing just over half. However, the numbers of patients are still quite small, so that may not be statistically accurate. Plus, many of those patients are receiving good medical care. It may kill a higher percentage of those who don't make it to hospitals.
It's also true that we probably don't know the true number of infected people. Just a few days ago Indonesia announced that it just learned that a little girl who died there last year had bird flu, even though several of her family members were known to have died of it.
If a relatively advanced country isn't getting around to testing an obviously suspect child patient until 8 months after her death -- what's happening in sub-Saharan Africa?
How many more victims are going undetected? That's unknown. On the bright side, it's possible that some or many victims are recovering without being tested so the actual lethality rate might be lower than we think.
If and when H5N1 mutates into a highly contagious form, its lethality rate could go lower. Until it actually happens, we just don't know.
But it is frightening to compare H5N1 to the 1918 flu, because the 1918 flu had a lethality rate of 2.5% -- so if contagious bird flu retains anything like its current apparent lethality rate, it could be much deadlier than 1918 flu. Which would make comparisons between them way over-optimistic.
To measure the spread of a disease, scientists use the contagion rate.
This is -- how many other people on average does one infected person spread the flu to?
Partly this is based on the virus itself, so we just can't know this until it does mutate. However, right now H5N1 is a tough virus -- it can survive for hours outside a human body and in water. This means that you could be infected by an A/H5N1 virus left on a doorknob by someone who opened that door several hours before you.
Overall contagion rate must be affected by population density. Bird flu will infect more people in a crowded Calcutta slum than in rural Wyoming.
And here's a great difference between now and 1918. The world's population is over 6 times higher. But since some areas of the world are so densely crowded, it's possible that chicken flu would spread through them very quickly and kill even more than 6 times as many people as in 1918.
Plus, in 1918 various areas of the world defended themselves by closing themselves off from the outside world. Some places can still do this, but most of the world is much less self-sufficient. Unless you're on an island that supplies its own food and water, you can't isolate yourself from other people.
And even if you can -- there's still the risk of contagion from animals. So your island better not be under a duck migration route. Because duck manure does contain the active virus.
Plus, the world's population may be more susceptible to infection than in 1918. Everybody infected with HIV is at risk, for example.
Bird flu would likely travel around the world more quickly today because we have much more international travel. We go places by jet instead of steam ships.
There's another advance in transportation -- not usually mentioned -- which will affect transmission of bird flu: the automobile. Only a very few people in 1918 had cars, and there was no system of highways.
Now cars and highways connect the entire developed world. And are common and widespread in the developing world.
Of course, riding alone in a car during a lethal flu pandemic is safer than riding in a bus, train or other mass transit vehicle with many other people. Yet if you're the one infected, a car can help you spread the virus farther and faster than you could have in 1918.
There's another risk of death the world's population faces from A/H5N1, which is not being addressed.
That's the risk of the consequences of the pandemic.
If the pandemic causes many deaths the world's economy will be disrupted.
There'll be shortages of food, water, medicine, energy and other necessities. This could last for a year or more, if agriculture is greatly affected.
In many places there's likely to be problems with both law and order and civil unrest.
In a pandemic of any significant seriousness there will death caused by a large number of various groups seeking to take advantage of the situation: ordinary criminals, terrorists, organized crime, renegade groups of soldiers and police, ethnic/racial hate groups, political/religious extremists of all stripes -- and just any old mob looking to loot and kill just because they can get away with it, or to scapegoat some other group for the pandemic.
In some cases there's bound to be organized armed battles and wars between countries and between competing groups within countries.
My personal belief is that there'll be great civil unrest but ultimately society as we know it will prevail -- though the world's map may change in many places.
With central governments weakened by deaths and lack of resources, many disaffected ethnic groups will seize the opportunity to become independent.
On the other hand, many ethnic majorities will seize the opportunity to blame ethnic minorities for the pandemic -- and kill them in riots.
The severity of events will likely fall somewhere between the temporary default of law and order in New Orleans during the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the total anarchy of Stephen King's novel THE STAND.
How can anybody predict the number of dead from these events?
Article Source: http://www.articlerich.com
c 2006 by Richard Stooker Richard discusses how to avoid the bird flu virus in his book How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From the Bird Flu Virus -- And check out his Bird Flu Virus blog
Write a Review
Add to My Favorite
Refer it to Friend
Report Article
Other links owned by this user
To prevent consumer fears, Kentucky Fried Chicken has started putting stickers on all their containers in the U.S. guaranteeing that their fried chicken is "rigorously inspected, thoroughly cooked, quality assured." From China to
Category:
Your prospect is actively hiding from you. One of the biggest mistakes you can make when choosing a copywriter is to hire one the same way you'd pick a champion archer. In archery, you should look for the bowman with the
Category:
Why? During a bird pandemic you d remain as isolated from everybody outside your family as possible. Therefore, you d shop only for necessities: food, water, fuel and medicine. Where? Therefore, you
Category:
The bird flu virus can be compared to a monkey with a typewriter. And that's why it's getting more and more dangerous. You may have heard the old observation that if you give enough monkeys a keyboard, eventually one will -- just by
Category:
Chess is a game of substitute war, so you will win more chess games by taking advantage of the ancient wisdom distilled from the art of military strategies. This includes a collection of strategies compiled in China at least 1,500 years
Category:
Several months ago, a cat in Germany caught bird flu -- and pet owners throughout Europe dumped ir poor dogs and cats. I trust you have more concern for animals under your care than that, and re are ways to reduce risk that
Category:
Yes, sure chess is good for developing he abiliy o hink, o reason, o ponder, o calculae and analyze. Sure i develops he abiliy o read and remember. To look and hink ahead, o carefully reason ou and foresee he consequences of acions and
Category:
How can you know whether your or a loved one ha bird flu or jut a cae of ordinary flu? That' not a imple quetion to anwer. Frankly, the only 100% way i to have body ecretion teted by a World Health Organization (WHO) laboratory
Category:
Bobby Fischer ate meat, cheese, hardboiled eggs and herring. Drank ice water, tomato juice and cola. Boris Spassky ate sandwiches and drank coffee and orange juice. Therefore, during their epic World Championship Chess
Category:
You see a lot of wild and crazy ates for this. Yet, the truth is, there's no simple answer. It depends on a lot of things -- and the most important factors are still unknown. First of all, I don't put any stock in the simplistic
Category:
International travel has always had its special health challenges, but until recently most travelers were not afraid of anything worse than diarrhea. Bird flu's changed that. The bird flu H5N1 virus has now been found from
Category:
For years, world class chess players have prepared for important tournaments by exercising. But few chess players do so in an optimum way. Serious chess players are certainly very intellectual, and not inclined to keep up a regular regimen
Category:
If you want to trust you and your family's health to the government -- you deserve what happens to you. The United States Homeland Security Council in early May 2006 released a 233 page report called the Strategy for Pandemic Influenza
Category:
Somewhere in Southeast Asia (or Africa, the MidEast, Europe etc) . . . A hen clucks and shifts around in her perch. She sniffs and sneezes. Inside the lining of her respiratory tract and lungs, millions of influenza viruses
Category:
With current vaccine technology a vaccine cannot save us from a pandemic of contagious bird flu. Although criticized as fearmongering, the ABC made for TV movie First Contact: Bird Flu in America was overly optimistic. Neither us nor the
Category:
The only real hope to stop future influenza pandemics such as we're now facing from bird flu, is to develop a "universal" flu vaccine that innoculates us against all influenza viruses. This would also eliminate the habit of giving people
Category:
Not long ago, I read an article about alternative health where someone with a serious disease was counseled to look upon it as a "blessing." Your first reaction is probably the same as mine was -- what a stupid idea! How can cancer or
Category:
If nothing else, the bird flu scare should remind us not to take our immune systems for granted. According to U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, Michael Leavitt, it'll take 6 months after a contagious strain of bird flu is
Category:
There've always been risks to hunting and fishing -- and smart hunters and fishers have always been aware of them and taken steps to minimize the risks. Just as you now practice gun safety, you must now be aware that there is new risk --
Category:
Bird flu won't stop terrorists, and a serious pandemic may encourage them to strike. Therefore, one more problem which policy makers in the world must watch out for is maintaining security. This will be hard enough when police, security
Category:
Other links at Disease & Illness > Bird Flu
If nothing else, the bird flu scare should remind us not to take our immune systems for granted. According to U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, Michael Leavitt, it'll take 6 months after a contagious strain of bird flu is
Category:
Is bird flu being spread more by migrating birds or by people transporting infected poultry? That's a question being debated by experts, and although it may not seem important, the answer makes a big difference in understanding how to stop
Category:
Not long ago, I read an article about alternative health where someone with a serious disease was counseled to look upon it as a "blessing." Your first reaction is probably the same as mine was -- what a stupid idea! How can cancer or
Category:
With current vaccine technology a vaccine cannot save us from a pandemic of contagious bird flu. Although criticized as fearmongering, the ABC made for TV movie First Contact: Bird Flu in America was overly optimistic. Neither us nor the
Category:
Why? During a bird pandemic you d remain as isolated from everybody outside your family as possible. Therefore, you d shop only for necessities: food, water, fuel and medicine. Where? Therefore, you
Category:
Site Sponsor
Directory Statistics
Articles: 68222
Categories: 501
Yahoo Entertainment
